Geopolitics

Geopolitics

WHAT IS IT?The study of the relationships between a country and the rest of the world.  Each nation has a sphere of a influence that it exherts over surrounding nations in areas such as trade, economic aid and military interaction. WHAT ABOUT THE GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY?1. How energy can be used to affect other nations' actions or their political makeup i.e. Russia's bargaining tool (Gas pipeline)2. How energy concerns might affect political policies directed to other nations i.e. USA to Saudi Arabia/Iraq 

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Possible issues

1. European dependence on Middle East for OIL, favourable relations with Saudi Arabia and continued interest with Iraq.2. USA import and dependence of GAS and OIL will continue to grow - meaning a supply is needed to fill the GAP - placing pressure on foreign policies3. Natural gas will carry on as the fastest growing resource and so will need major infrastructure development/investment. Europe will have to ensure a safe supply is restored and so keep good relations with main exporters - Middle East: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia. (Russia is likely to expand its connections with Europe.

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Energy Concerns and Foreign Policies

The middle east is a region which possesses much of the reserves of oil and gas.  The Gulf corporation council states, (Saudi, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Iran and Iraq,)  jointly posses 64% of oil reserves, (Saudi Arabia accounts for 25% alone.) Therefore the West has an obvious interest towards in supporting political and social stability in the region to gain access to a new/continued supply - ensuring energy security. WHAT HAS HAPPENED?1991 Gulf War = military attack on Iraq, which had invaded Kuwait due to long-lasting border disagreements, also threatened to invade Saudi 540,000 coalition troops from UK/France/US.2003 War on Iraq = prior to the war, Iraq's alleged possessions of WMD was claimed to pose a serious threat to the security of the USA and allies (but they were never found.)- Alan Greenspan (former government finance minister) believed it was actually due to oil and energy security for the stability of the region.- Article released in 2005 reporting that the US planned to sell Iraq's oil field to large Western Companies - HAPPENED NOW.

Political Power as a result of energy 

- Russian economy 2005, oil and gas sector provided as 20% of GDP, with 60% of the money it makes just from exports.- In essence, it is argued that Russia is starting to utilise its energy to influence world politics in a way that it was once able to do during communism, when it was one of the major world powers. - From this Russia can begin to control other countries and boost their own economy.

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Russia and Ukraine gas supplies

Ukraine was part of the USSR (United Soviet Socialist Republic) until 1991. But still remained economically and politically close to Russia until 2005.In JAN 2005 - Orange Revolution = Viktor Yushchenko (FOR join EU) and Viktor Yanukovych 2004 results rigged by the authorities in favour of Yanukovych  (remain in Russia.) Yushchenko reinstated by authorities after much public pressure. Yushchenko looked towards the West an EU for future of Ukraine.in MARCH 2005 - a major dispute about gas prices emerged. whilst the two countries had been allied, Ukraine received gas from Russia at prices well below the world market price. Once there was a threat to this relationship, Gazprom, threatened to raise prices and on January 1 2006 the supply was cut off.Resulted in other nations suffering due to 80% of Russian gas exports go to Europe:- Italy down by 24%- France down by 25% Decreasing favour of former Russian president Yushchenko lead to reelection in spring 2006 with Yanukovych's pro-russian party leading parliament.

Russia cuts off Czech Republic

Russia used power of energy to similarly influence nearby nations: Czech Republic.- They cut off oil supplies to the Czech Republic on 10 July 2008. Russian officials said the stoppage had  occurred for 'technical' reasons, but some believe it was 'politically motivated.' - Czech Republic government had signed a deal to host one half of anti-missile system, which is supposed to act as a form of defence against rogue states, such like Iran - but it is believed by the Kremlin (Russian government,) that it is directed against Russia.

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Affect on EU nations 

Is this all sustainable?- Russia influencing its former states and affecting European energy supply, (80% of exports for gas+oil go to Europe,) in the future?- Also could hold western Europe to ransom due to such high dependence- If the powerful nation continues to fall out with other western european nations, it could then pose a threat to the UK.- Leading to an energy 'insecurity' where nothing will be able to operate throughout the nation. 

EU's Response 

Pipeline that bypasses to RUSSIA 2005 Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline = first stage completed, will run 1,100 miles from Baku, (the capital of Azerbaijan,) through Georgia and to the Turkish Mediterranean part of Ceyhan.  The pipeline will carry 1m barrels a day from the Caspian sea, which contained the third-largest oil and gas reserves.US favoured the pipeline as lessen dependence on Middle Eastern oil supply and Russian pipeline as well as avoiding Iran. 

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Arctic energy affecting country relations

2007 - Russia plants flag on the north pole, (on the sea bed.) Arctic 'gold rush' thought to be large oil reserves present:- Rush for Arctic has become more frenzied because of the meting polar ice caps, allowing easier exploration.- Russia is claiming that an underwater mountain known as LOMONOSOV RIDGE is an actual 'extension of Russian landmass.'- Under article 76 of the convention, a state can claim a 200 national mile exclusive zone and beyond that up to 150 nautical miles of rights on the sea bed, (starts at the end of the continental shelf.) - Further political disputes will arise between countries after Arctic Gold Rush. 

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