Carbon Cycle and Energy Security

1. Key word: Movement of carbon between its forms is the 'carbon pathway'
   1. Largest stores are atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere

1. Remains on seabed for long periods of time --> compacted ooze and cementation (approx. 100m under seabed) --> deeper = fewer spaces

1. Biological degradation --> cementation (100m) --> diagenesis at 40 degrees --> crude oil and natural gas (Approx. 2500m)

1. Tectonic forces bring carbon-rich sedimentary rocks into contact with extreme heat which causes chemical changes and releases CO2
   1. Key word: Out-gassing
      1. Volcanic activity releases approx. 300 million tonnes of CO2 each year
2. e.g. Chemical weathering of limestone

1. Key term: Biological carbon pump
2. Starting at the surface, carbon is able to make its way deeper in the ocean through the food chain
   1. Since colder water has less pressure it can hold more gas e.g. Southern Ocean around Antarctica is a massive carbon sink
      1. Key word: thermohaline circulation
      2. Southern Ocean accounts for more than 25% of the ocean-atmosphere exchange

1. Seasonal pattern: winter CO2 concentrations are generally higher
   1. Despite seasonal differences, PPM of CO2 is increasing steadily and is currently approx. 402ppm

1. Short wavelength means the energy is able to pass in and out of the atmosphere
   1. Without greenhouse gases e.g. methane, water vapour we would have an average global temperature of -6 deg Celsius
      1. Until approx 1750, natural geological and biological processes controlled greenhouse gases but increasing CO2 has altered fluxes and sinks

1. Going to be a lag period as between 15 and 40% of CO2 remains in the atmosphere for up to 2000 years

1. Global energy mix largely dominated by non-renewables namely crude oil and coal
   1. Switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy is being driven by developed countries, however the change is slow
      1. Key term: renewable switching
      2. Energy pathways are hard to break because of geo-political links
      3. New technologies need to be developed and improved
2. Key term: primary energy
3. Key term: secondary energy

1. Real or perceived needs of the country
2. Changing consumption patterns, perhaps linked to population growth
3. Cultural and historical legacies regarding geopolitical links
4. Accessability of primary resources outside the country
5. Availability of primary resources
6. The financial costs of each energy option

1. PROS
   1. Large worldwide demand --> $$$
      1. Support industry --> jobs
         1. Easy to transport
            1. More money for public infrastructure
               1. Wealth
                  1. Oil money can be invested in new energy resources
2. CONS
   1. Increased global warming
      1. Burning --> acid rain
         1. Oil spills e.g. Exxon Valdez
   2. Wars have been fought
      1. Dependency on oil
         1. Finite resource
3. Middle East

1. Energy players have three objectives: ensuring that energy supply meets current and future demand, ensuring accessible and affordable energy for all and ensuring efficient use of energy to move towards lower greenhouse gas emissions

1. CS: State-controlled energy companies

1. Natural obstacles include vast distances as well as difficult terrain
2. CS: Trans-Alaskan pipeline

1. E.g. Russian/ Ukraine disputes, Somalian pirate activity or South China Sea

1. Economic sanctions / embargos e.g. Russian sanctions for invading Crimea in 2014

1. Oil was in slow decline, however, China recently overtook the USA as the world's largest importer

1. Where: Canada
2. CS: Canadian tar sands

   Annotations:

   • GOOD EXAMPLE OF HOW IT CAN BE DONE RIGHT: - In Alberta, Canada there are 166 billion barrels of oil in tar sand reserves. - Production increased from 0.1 million barrels a day in 1980 to 2.3 million barrels in 2014 - 151,000 jobs created - Regulated by national bodies which set a target of 20% reduction in greenhouse emissions in Alberta by 2017

1. Where: Colorado, USA
   1. Little commercial development anywhere
      1. Significant environmental impacts e.g. releases greenhouse gases when burnt

1. Where: Gulf of Mexico
   1. 63 deep-water rigs in 2014 compared to 14 rigs in 2010
      1. CS: Deepwater Horizon
         1. Lots of new regulations are in place e.g. robots that can heal leaks in 45 seconds

1. Where: USA
   1. Carbon footprint of shale gas is half of that of coal
      1. Fracking
         1. Possible contamination of groundwater and surface water
      2. Still a fossil fuel

Annotations:

• Exponential technology that has seen an incredible plunge in prices The price of wind power has plunged since 1980 by 30 times. Wind energy is now the cheapest power you can buy in some places around the world. New technologies: fraction of time that wind turbines are producing energy is increasing all the time South Africa has the world's best wind resources offshore and onshore Offshore wind in the last four years has dropped in half in price

1. Wind power as a source globally has grown by 700% in the last decade

Annotations:

• In the last 40 years the price of solar power has plunged. In 1977 to buy one Watt of solar power cost about $77. Now it costs $0.30, meaning a 250 times reduction in price. Solar power around the world has grown by 50 times in the last decade Prices fall --> tap into new markets --> demand rises --> prices fall Exponential growth growing at 45% per year with no sign of it slowing yet

1. Solar energy is increasing very fast (38.2% in 2014) compared to wind and HEP
   1. South Africa could become a solar superpower

1. Europe's largest renewable energy source

1. Biofuel is suitable for small-scale rather than large-scale operations

1. The use of biofuels continues to grow slowly, mainly in the USA, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina
2. Seen as step backwards
3. Agave and hemp plants (super-oily)

Annotations:

• Hydrogen fuel cells Could replace natural gas for heating or petrol for transport Only waste product is waterIt is more efficient than petrol engine Needs to be separated to be in its pure form and this requires a lot of energy and may emit large amounts of greenhouse gases Not a primary energy source and hydrogen tanks need to be strong enough to withstand impacts

Annotations:

• The distances an electric car can travel without a recharge are relatively short compared with petrol cars, however this is changing. Lack of charging points especially in the UK where 19.2% are located in London Zero carbon emissions and nearly no noise pollution, however some people have complained that they are too quiet and pedestrians fail to hear them coming

Annotations:

• Carbon capture and storage Collects CO2 emissions from power plants and transports it to a suitable geological structure underground to make sure none of it is released into the atmosphere

1. This shows that whilst population increases energy use, it is economic development and prosperity that account for most of the demand
2. Higher population means more food production --> deforestation --> less carbon absorption
   1. IPCC predicts that in 2013, 24% of greenhouse gas emissions came from agriculture and land-use change, such as biomass burning, deforestation
      1. IPCC recommends that people switch from eating meat to plants or other meat-substitutes and eating generally less so that we eat no more than is required

1. Higher acidic concentrations will increase chemical weathering at the coast especially where there are limestone rocks

1. Behaviour patterns of marine organisms are expected to change -

   Annotations:

   • Phytoplankton and microalgae might benefit from increased photosynthesis and some fish may be less sensitive Higher acidity may affect the ability of some organisms to build shells and skeletons, creating thinner or smaller shells in molluscs and reducing the size of coral reefs
   1. Despite a rise in the population of primary producers there will likely be a decline in ecosystem productivity

1. CS: Droughts in Amazonia, South America

   Annotations:

   • Drought usually occurs once every ten years in the Amazon Research by UNEP showed that the trees absorb less CO2 during droughts and it was estimated that the 2005 drought emitted 5 billion tonnes of CO2 In the future, the Amazonian tropical rainforest may cease to be a carbon sink and instead become a carbon source with increasingly frequent wildfires and decomposition
   1. Example of positive feedback where an increase in CO2 --> drought --> increase in CO2

1. Largest global increase in temperature is in the Arctic
   1. Higher temperatures are drying up Arctic ponds
      1. Permafrost thawing rates will increase
         1. Arctic lakes will freeze later, with earlier break-up and thinner ice in winter
            1. Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by 2037 especially as oceans warm and reduced sea ice will provide increased evaporation and snowfall

1. The ocean is a huge food supply
   1. Coral reefs becoming smaller and bleached --> less suitable ecosystems for marine wildlife --> less food for humans
      1. Bleaching is predicted to affect half of all coral reefs by 2050
      2. CS: Great Barrier Reef

         Annotations:

         • If the CO2 levels remain at this current rate of increase, ocean acidity will increase by 150% by 2100.  Coral reefs have important environmental impacts e.g. they are a natural barrier against tropical storms and destructive waves and they protect marine life from predators whilst providing them with a nutrient-rich environment. The Great Barrier Reef in Australia is the size of Germany and has significant economical benefits: it generates $1.5bn per annum for Australia's economy. Coral reefs also provide humans with food and in return jobs!
2. Also a loss of leisure opportunities e.g. Great Barrier Reef

1. Respiratory issues
   1. 2 deaths
   2. 19 critically injured
2. 200,000 evacuated

1. "an abrupt, possibly irreversible, large-scale change over a few decades or less"
   1. Dieback of boreal forest
      1. Drought stress may lead to the collapse of boreal forest. Arctic ecosystems are vulnerable to thawing permafrost, shrubs spreading in the tundra and an increased number of pests as temperatures rise
         1. Unpredictable over large area
   2. Arctic Ocean free of ice in the summer
      1. Higher air temperatures met sea ice. However, thinner ice cover may also increase albedo and cooling
         1. This negative feedback is not fully understood
   3. Long-term droughts
   4. Collapse of monsoon climate circulation
      1. More intense precipitation occurs during the monsoon wet season because of the transport of more evaporated moisture in warmer air
         1. A sudden collapse is unpredictable
   5. Dieback of tropical rainforest
      1. Forests e.g. Amazonia could change to a less carbon-dense, drought and fire-adapted ecosystem as a result of longer dry seasons
         1. Unpredictable over large area
   6. Seabed methane release
      1. Methane hydrates could be released as methane gas as a result of global warming
         1. Unlikely
   7. Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapse
      1. Increased volumes of freshwater could alter thermohaline circulation
         1. Climate models disagree

1. Around 20% of CO2 could remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years

1. In China, water saving irrigation has been introduced - between 2007 and 2009 China saved up to 11.8% of its previous consumption

Annotations:

• The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 set out to reduce global CO2 emissions but it wasn't a truly global agreement. The Paris Agreement of 2015 was signed by 195 countries who all promised to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to almost zero by 2065. The USA has since pulled out of the agreement under President Trump and this has led to many tensions, with France blocking all trade with the US until they rejoin.  However, there is little force making countries work towards their targets and progress reporting could be tampered with or plainly innaccurate. Science suggests that the target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels is unlikely as we have already seen a 1 degree rise in 2016.