Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world

Ten ways autonomous driving (in Spanish, [blank_start]vehículos[blank_end] autónomos or sin conductor) could redefine the automotive world.

Autonomous vehicles represent a major innovation for the automotive industry, but their potential impact with respect to timing, [blank_start]uptake[blank_end] (inserción o recepción en el mercado), and penetration remains [blank_start]hazy[blank_end] (confuso, incierto).

In an effort to look beyond today's rapidly changing prediction on AV penetration, we interviewed more than 30 experts across Europe, the United States, Asia and combined these finding with our [blank_start]insights[blank_end] (perspectivas, opiniones) to arrive [blank_start]at[blank_end] ten [blank_start]thought-provoking[blank_end] (making you think) potential implications of self-driving cars.

To explore these implications in depth, we focused on three [blank_start]time horizons[blank_end] (etapas) of AV diffusion.

Industrial fleets [blank_start]lead the way[blank_end] (marcan el camino, la tendencia).

While it's unlikely that any [blank_start]on-road[blank_end] (de uso diario) vehicle will feature "fully autonomous" drive technology in the short term...

Some of the benefits of autonomy in these fields include labor-cost saving and the reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through optimized driving (shown to cut emissions [blank_start]by[blank_end] as much as 60 percent).

Other adjacent equipment applications (...) should see the next AV applications for vehicles such as excavators, forklifts, and [blank_start]loaders[blank_end].

In the medium term (through 2040), [blank_start]on-highway[blank_end] (que van por la ruta) trucks will likely be the first vehicles to feature the full technology on public roads.

Long-term automated commercial fleets might include vehicles for [blank_start]parcel[blank_end] (paquete) delivery as well as automated drones, which multiple players are already [blank_start]field-testing[blank_end] (probando o verificando en entornos reales).

Car OEMs ([blank_start]original equipment manufacturer[blank_end], in Spanish [blank_start]fabricante de partes originales[blank_end]) face a decision.

[blank_start]Automakers[blank_end] (similar to OEMs) worldwide will likely define and communicate their strategic position on AVs in the next two to three years. We have identified four strategic [blank_start]stances[blank_end] (posiciones, estrategias) they can assume when introducing their autonomous-vehicle offerings.

Premium [blank_start]incumbents[blank_end] (fabricantes principales).

This likely means they will gradually introduce increasing levels of [blank_start]advanced driver-assistance systems[blank_end] (in Spanish sistema de asistencia avanzada al conductor) ([blank_start]ADAS[blank_end]) in their vehicles.

[blank_start]Attackers[blank_end] (competidores, retadores). New industry players developing "radically new" vehicle architectures —such as high-tech giants, [blank_start]first-tier[blank_end] (de alta gama) suppliers, and mobility operators— will focus on the "accesible mobility" consumer segment to capture volumes quickly and sustain [blank_start]ancillary[blank_end] (suplementario) business models.

[blank_start]Core technologies[blank_end]: tecnologías básicas.

Late entrants/nonadopters: [blank_start]rezagados[blank_end].

While OEMs are developing autonomous vehicles, a variety of other transpot-mobility innovations are already [blank_start]hitting the road[blank_end] (poniéndose en marcha). Many of these take the form of pay-per-use models such as [blank_start]car sharing[blank_end] (uso temporal de vehículo), [blank_start]carpooling[blank_end] (compartir vehículo, vehículo compartido), "[blank_start]e-hailing[blank_end]" (llamar un taxi desde un dispositivo móvil) taxi alternatives, and peer-to-peer car rentals.

As of 2014, for example, roughly 80 percent of the [blank_start]car-service shops[blank_end] (talleres mecánicos) in Germany were "independent" from OEMs.

Given the safety-critical nature of AV technologies, customers might strongly prefer strict adherence to OEM service processes and the use of original service equipment [blank_start]when it comes to[blank_end] maintaining and repairing AV systems.

Furthermore, our research shows that nearly 60 percent of customers would follow their smart-cars' recommendation for service locations. Beyond the benefits of a bigger [blank_start]after-sales[blank_end] (post-venta) revenue stream, OEMs will have a strong incentive to service these vehicles, since [blank_start]regulators[blank_end] (entes reguladores) could ultimately force them to take on the greatest portion of the responsibility and risk associated with crashes caused by AV technical failures.

[blank_start]Car insurers[blank_end] (empresas de seguros) have always provided consumer coverage in the event of accidents caused by human error. With driverless vehicles, [blank_start]auto insurers[blank_end] (empresas de seguros) might shift the core of their business model, focusing mainly on insuring car manufacturers from [blank_start]liabilities[blank_end] (responsabilidad civil) from technicular failure of their AVs, [blank_start]as opposed to[blank_end] (instead of) protecting private customers from risks associated with human error in accidents. This change could transform the insurance industry from its current focus on millions of private consumers to one that involves a few OEMs and infrastructure operators, similar to insurance for cruise lines and [blank_start]shipping companies[blank_end] (compañías navieras o empresas de transporte marítimo).

Companies could reshape their [blank_start]supply chains[blank_end] (cadenas de suministros).

What's more, a fully automated and [blank_start]lean[blank_end] (ajustada, sin desperdicio) supply chain can help reduce load sizes and stocks by [blank_start]leveraging[blank_end] (boosting, aumentando) smart distribution technologies and smaller AVs.

Era three: AVs [blank_start]go mainstream[blank_end] (se vuelven populares).

These include [blank_start]remote advanced sensing[blank_end] ((tele)detección remota), [blank_start]hyperprecise positioning[blank_end] (posicionamiento preciso), GPS, image recognition, and advanced artificial intelligence. In addition to sharing technology, AVs and robots could benefit from using the same infrastructure, including [blank_start]recharging stations[blank_end] (estaciones de recarga) service centers, and machine-to-machine communication networks. These [blank_start]commonalities[blank_end] (características compartidas) might push players to invest in both applications...