The Baloney Detection Kit

Description

Sagan presents a series of tools for identifying bad arguments and constructing better alternatives. He introduces the scientific method to non-scientists and offers tips for applying critical thinking. By adopting the kit, we can all shield ourselves against fake news and deliberate manipulation. Have a look at this helpful tool.
Andrea Pan
Flashcards by Andrea Pan, updated more than 1 year ago
Andrea Pan
Created by Andrea Pan over 2 years ago
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Resource summary

Question Answer
Confirm the facts Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.” Require evidence. Be skeptical
Encourage open debate Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
Authorities can be wrong Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.
Spin more than one hypothesis If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Come up with a variety of competing hypotheses explaining a given outcome. Considering many different explanations will lower the risk of confirmation bias.
Don't get too attached to your own ideas Try not to become too attached to a hypothesis just because it is yours. It is only a way station in the quest for knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons to reject it. If you don't, others will.
Quantify whenever possible If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations.
Test every link in the chain Every part of an argument must stand up to scrutiny. Every step in an argument must be logically sound; a single weak link can doom the entire chain.
Apply Occam's Razor This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.
Test the hypothesis Science does not concern itself with unfalsifiable propositions. You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.
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